UBS predicts gold will climb about 28% to $5,200

After a rough stretch, UBS says gold should recover about 28% over the next 12 months, pushing prices toward roughly $5,200 an ounce. Prices have slid about 23% from their January highs to around $4,040 an ounce, after a 150% gain from early 2024 to early 2026.

UBS points to three factors driving the rebound. First, investors are overestimating the Federal Reserve's hawkishness after Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman; the bank expects the next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike, and rate cuts tend to boost demand for safe havens.

Second, the US dollar should weaken as long positioning is "stretched" and fiscal deficits continue to rise, which historically has been a tailwind for gold. Third, global central banks are likely to keep buying the metal—Poland and China bought 18 and 10 metric tons in May—and steady annual demand should provide a floor for prices.

United States

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