Meta's Zuckerberg enters the prediction market arena — again, a step behind

Mark Zuckerberg has repeatedly followed trends others pioneered: Reels after TikTok, Threads after the exodus from Twitter, and Facebook Dating amid the rise of dating apps. Now the 42-year-old is moving into online betting with an internal project called "Arena," pitched as a rival to Polymarket and Kalshi, where users place real-money wagers on outcomes from elections to Federal Reserve moves or whether Donald Trump will mention McDonald’s in a speech.

The wider market has expanded rapidly since the Supreme Court overturned the online-betting ban in 2018. Americans wagered approximately $150 billion on sporting events alone last year, an 11% increase from 2024, and 39 states now allow online sports betting. Polymarket and Kalshi surged during the 2024 presidential election, together recording around $50 billion in trading volume in 2025, and research firm Eilers & Krejcik projects the market could reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade.

United States

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