How Much 'Toy Story 5' Needs To Make at the Box Office

Toy Story 5 arrives seven years after Toy Story 4 with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score, a high-profile tie-in song by Taylor Swift and broad audience goodwill. After a summer of surprises — from an underperforming Star Wars entry to the breakout horror hit Obsession — the latest Toy Story looks positioned to be the season’s surest performer.

Opening weekend estimates vary: one outlet projects $135–140 million while other industry voices put it between $160 million and $175 million. Even the lower range would top the franchise opening held by Toy Story 4 ($120.9 million) and could beat The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $131.4 million three-day start.

A $275 million global opening has also been floated, which would surpass Toy Story 4’s $249.5 million worldwide debut and sit behind Super Mario Galaxy’s $372.5 million international weekend. The film’s $250 million production budget would make it Pixar’s most expensive movie, above prior Toy Story-adjacent titles that cost $200 million.

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