Galaxy Research Sees Higher Bitcoin Floor, Base-Case Bottom $40K–$46K

New research from Galaxy Digital argues Bitcoin’s cycle low could emerge at higher levels than past bear markets, driven by a lack of speculation. The analysis places a potential bottom between $62,000 and the network’s realized price of $53,600, and notes the four-year cycle continues to track historical timing as peak-to-trough declines have narrowed across cycles.

Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, highlighted that the October 2025 top looked different from earlier peaks: only two of eleven traditional topping indicators fired and the Pi Cycle Top indicator did not trigger. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio peaked at 2.29, versus 2.93–5.91 in prior cycles.

"The key insight: a calm top RAISES the floor. Because October’s top was so muted, the network’s cost basis sits at 43.7% of ATH, vs ~34%, 21%, and 17% in prior cycles." The report finds several bottoming signals are still absent, with only four of thirteen indicators having triggered so far.

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