CDC models say central Africa Ebola outbreak could match 2014 scale

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has modelled scenarios in which the Central Africa Ebola outbreak grows to between 10,000 and more than 20,000 cases. That would put it in the same range as the 2014–2016 west Africa epidemic, which recorded more than 28,000 cases and killed over 11,000 people.

The CDC analysis found outcomes depend largely on how quickly infected people are identified and isolated. "Without strong public health interventions, the modelling work suggests an outbreak of that scale is possible," said incident manager Dr Satish Pillai. Jennifer Nuzzo of Brown University cautioned the numbers are uncertain: "I wouldn’t read too much into the specific numbers.

It’s really hard to make an accurate projection when you have limited data." The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has reported about 400 confirmed cases and 63 deaths, and experts say additional cases are likely undiagnosed or unreported.

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