Quant traders are applying complex models to exploit prediction markets

Chicago-based trading giant DRW is building a dedicated prediction market desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The firm, a dominant force in derivatives, fixed income and crypto markets since 1992, posted a job requiring candidates to monitor prices in real time across both platforms, identify gaps and react quickly.

Listed strategies include microstructure arbitrage, cross-platform arbitrage and news-driven momentum trading at sub-second speeds—techniques honed in crypto derivatives and now applied to sports and political events. Rising volume appears to be the catalyst. Polymarket processed between $22 billion and $40 billion in 2025, with sports accounting for a growing share: the UEFA Champions League Winner market processed $256 million, the 2026 NBA Champion market $399 million, and the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup market $79 million, combining for over $730 million.

Wintermute, IMC and traditional crypto exchanges like OKX and Crypto.com have also posted job listings, signaling a broader institutional interest.

United States, Chicago

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