Bracketology: predict a path to World Cup victory

The World Cup bracket is fixed from the start: after the group stage there are no further draws to decide matchups. The competition is structured to keep the bigger teams from meeting too early and to give all 48 teams a reason to field their strongest side in every game.

The top two teams from each group automatically qualify for the next round. A group winner faces a second- or third-placed team from another group, so teams have an incentive to win their final group match to secure what are, in principle, easier opponents in the last 32.

Teams facing a likely third-place finish still have cause to fight on: the eight best of the 12 third-placed teams also advance. Take England as an example. If they top their group they will face a third-placed team in the first knockout round (technically any one of 20 other teams, but plausibly Côte d'Ivoire or Algeria).

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