Bitcoin Most Oversold Since 2020 Crash — Can BTC Recover to $70K?

Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index has fallen to about 15.5, the lowest reading since the March 2020 COVID crash, signaling extreme oversold conditions. The move follows roughly a 30% decline over the past month amid geopolitical risks, higher oil prices, fading hopes for a 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut and panic over Strategy’s latest Bitcoin sale.

Readings this deep often appear near seller-exhaustion zones and have preceded sharp relief rallies. In 2020, BTC’s RSI dropped to around 15.56 before a roughly 50% rebound helped by the Fed’s emergency shift to near-zero rates and large-scale bond purchases; in February 2026 a similar 15.86 reading came while price held above $60,000 and preceded nearly a 30% recovery toward $82,850.

Bulls are again defending the $60,000 level, and holding above it would increase the odds of an oversold bounce toward the 20-day exponential moving average at about $70,650.

United States

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