Bitcoin could crash to $48,000, if this historical pattern is triggered

A recurring Fibonacci pattern suggests bitcoin could fall sharply if it follows past cycles. Every bear market has retraced more than the 61.8% level of the move from near zero in early 2010 to the latest bull peaks. With this cycle's peak above $126,000, that 61.8% retracement sits around $48,215, while bitcoin trades near $64,000.

The pattern is defined by drawing Fibonacci retracements from near zero — bitcoin began trading at $0.003 in February 2010 — to the bull peaks reached in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017 and November 2021. In each subsequent bear market, prices fell well below the 61.8% retracement.

Because this cycle's peak topped $126,000 earlier this year, the same retracement level points to about $48,215. The pattern has not triggered yet, but if it does the charts indicate a drop to at least that level from current prices near $64,000. Historical patterns are not guarantees.

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