Analyst warns 3 risks could derail SpaceX's post-IPO rally

Less than a week after its historic debut, SpaceX shares — which rose from an initial $135 to as high as $218, a 61% jump — have prompted caution from at least one analyst. Paul Meeks, managing director and head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, estimates fair value near $63 a share, roughly a third of trading levels, and said he believes the stock may have already peaked.

Meeks highlighted three near-term catalysts that could spark a decline. First, the company sold less than 5% of shares to the public and a 4% public float could be eroded if SpaceX issues more stock. Second, investors are pricing SpaceX as an AI play — including ambitions such as orbital data centers — even as its AI arm, xAI, posted a $6.4 billion loss last year.

Third, the company’s first public earnings, expected in August ahead of lock-up expirations, could force investors to confront a valuation that outpaces fundamentals.

spacex, ipo, share price, fair value, public float, share issuance, xai, ai play, earnings, lockup expirations